White Christmas Forecast at D-9: 10% Chance of “New” Snow

December 17, 2009 09:34 – 09:34

What a difference a day makes. Today, the December 25th forecast at TWC calls for a 40% chance of “Rain/Snow Showers” during the day, and a 60% chance during the evening. The Christmas Eve forecast calls for a 60% chance of a snow shower.

The bad news is the forecast highs and lows. They forecast an overnight low of only 36°F on the 24th, and 45°/33° for the High/Low on Christmas day.

All in all, I’d say that the higher temperatures offset the higher POP, keeping our chances for new Christmas snow at 10%. Anyone know the lyrics to “I’m dreaming of a wet Christmas”?

But, hold that thought.

Why did I say “new” snow? There’s a storm currently building in strength in the gulf. It is forecast to move to the coast of NC, and then head NE. Can you say “Coastal Low”? Current models are very optimistic from a snow-lover’s point of view. Saturday temperatures are forecast to be around 32°/26° for highs/lows. If the track and strength continue as anticipated, we will get from 8″ to 14″ of snow over the weekend. That much snow will still be here on Christmas, giving us a white one. That much snow is almost unheard-of for December in the DC area. By Sunday, I expect the hyperbole crew to be using words like “blizzard,” although, I learned that a true blizzard requires 25+ MPH winds, visibility less than 500 feet, and wind chill temperatures of -15°F or lower — lasting at least three hours.

By the way, I just love the weather icons that the NWS uses. Here’s the graphic forecast for 22307 for this coming weekend.

If we get 8+ inches of snow, it will also change the dynamics of the temperature forecasts, bringing radiational/reflective cooling at night, dropping overnight lows into the teens and low 20s next week. With these changes in dynamics, we would expect to see forecast highs/lows for later in the week to drop considerably, increasing the chances that additional precipitation on the 24th and 25th would be snow.

Just to cinch the deal, however, I’m heading out now to have my car washed. I sang at the Frog Pond Early Learning Center last night, and got stuck in the mud. My car had to be pulled out. Mud flew everywhere. You can bet that if I’m having my car washed on Thursday, there’s going to be plenty of nasty stuff on the roads within a few days.

Of course, I could always kill the chances for snow by a) putting together the Wovel I got for my birthday or b) heading out & buying some cross-country skis.

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